The following appeared in a memo to the board of directors of a company that specializes in the delivery of heating oil.
"Most homes in the northeastern United States, where winters are typically cold, have traditionally used oil as their major fuel for heating. Last heating season, that region experienced 90 days with below-normal temperatures, and climate forecasters predict that this weather pattern will continue for several more years. Furthermore, many new homes are being built in the region in response to recent population growth. Because of these trends, we can safely predict that this region will experience an increased demand for heating oil during the next five years."
Write a response in which you discuss what questions would need to be answered in order to decide whether the prediction and the argument on which it is based are reasonable. Be sure to explain how the answers to these questions would help to evaluate the prediction.
The author presents a statement to the board of the directors of the mentioned company with the prediction that the demand of heating oil will increase in the upcoming five years but The Prediction has its own shortcomings due to few of the assumptions made by the author to reach to the conclusion. Certain Assumptions in the presence of which, it is difficult to rely totally on the author’s prediction making the recommendation doubtful at the best.
Firstly, the author states that oil has been a major source of fuel for heating in the homes in northeastern United States, but this statement is not backed by any research or analysis providing evidence to the statement of the author. Eventhough oil has been a major fuel for heating in the past, it can not be assumed that it is still one of the most efficient and most used source for generating heat. With the technological advancements, there are various other methods through which heat can be generated like electricity and so it can not be supposed that it will stay the most reliable source for generating heat. It is not sure if the oil can even generate sufficient heat during extreme cold weathers and so can not be stated as the most reliable fuel for generating heat of the future.
Secondly, Author states that the climate forecasters have predicted that the decrease in the temperatures below the normal expected range will continue for several more years. The Weather forecasts made are vaguely stated and there is no clue present about how many years precisely the prediction is stating. Also, weather forecasts are not totally true everytime and they have a few hit and miss situations now and then. Relying totally on weather forecasts can sometimes be a profitless endeavor.
Thirdly, Author states that there are more and more new homes built in the area and so with the increase in population, the demand for the fuel will rise in the area. Although, the rise in the population cannot be directly be related with the increase in oil demands. It is possible that the new homes built are already pre-equipped with heaters having modern technology used in them. It is possible that the heaters provided runs by electricity instead of oil and so then the demand of oil can decline. Also, if the heaters are not provided with the new homes, it is possible that the owners might opt for other more efficient heating options for their new homes.
Lastly, Prediction stating five years is a lond duration and wonders can happen during such long span. It is possible that research can provide us with new and more efficient heating solutions. So, the statement requires many specific evidences to support the claims of the author without which the prediction is doubtful at best to succeed.
| Post date | Users | Rates | Link to Content |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2022-10-11 | mojammel1501114 | 58 | view |
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Grammar and spelling errors:
Line 1, column 198, Rule ID: WHITESPACE_RULE
Message: Possible typo: you repeated a whitespace
Suggestion:
...e upcoming five years but The Prediction has its own shortcomings due to few of t...
^^
Line 1, column 229, Rule ID: TO_TOO[2]
Message: Did you mean 'too'?
Suggestion: too
...rediction has its own shortcomings due to few of the assumptions made by the auth...
^^
Line 3, column 584, Rule ID: WHITESPACE_RULE
Message: Possible typo: you repeated a whitespace
Suggestion:
...t be supposed that it will stay the most reliable source for generating heat. It ...
^^
Line 5, column 381, Rule ID: MANY_NN[1]
Message: Possible agreement error. The noun hit seems to be countable; consider using: 'few hits'.
Suggestion: few hits
... totally true everytime and they have a few hit and miss situations now and then. Relyi...
^^^^^^^
Transition Words or Phrases used:
also, but, first, firstly, if, lastly, second, secondly, so, still, then, third, thirdly
Attributes: Values AverageValues Percentages(Values/AverageValues)% => Comments
Performance on Part of Speech:
To be verbs : 27.0 19.5258426966 138% => OK
Auxiliary verbs: 15.0 12.4196629213 121% => OK
Conjunction : 15.0 14.8657303371 101% => OK
Relative clauses : 14.0 11.3162921348 124% => OK
Pronoun: 27.0 33.0505617978 82% => OK
Preposition: 55.0 58.6224719101 94% => OK
Nominalization: 16.0 12.9106741573 124% => OK
Performance on vocabulary words:
No of characters: 2302.0 2235.4752809 103% => OK
No of words: 473.0 442.535393258 107% => OK
Chars per words: 4.86680761099 5.05705443957 96% => OK
Fourth root words length: 4.66353547975 4.55969084622 102% => OK
Word Length SD: 2.64340455887 2.79657885939 95% => OK
Unique words: 206.0 215.323595506 96% => OK
Unique words percentage: 0.435517970402 0.4932671777 88% => More unique words wanted or less content wanted.
syllable_count: 715.5 704.065955056 102% => OK
avg_syllables_per_word: 1.5 1.59117977528 94% => OK
A sentence (or a clause, phrase) starts by:
Pronoun: 7.0 6.24550561798 112% => OK
Article: 6.0 4.99550561798 120% => OK
Subordination: 1.0 3.10617977528 32% => OK
Conjunction: 1.0 1.77640449438 56% => OK
Preposition: 1.0 4.38483146067 23% => More preposition wanted as sentence beginning.
Performance on sentences:
How many sentences: 18.0 20.2370786517 89% => OK
Sentence length: 26.0 23.0359550562 113% => OK
Sentence length SD: 54.6308882466 60.3974514979 90% => OK
Chars per sentence: 127.888888889 118.986275619 107% => OK
Words per sentence: 26.2777777778 23.4991977007 112% => OK
Discourse Markers: 4.88888888889 5.21951772744 94% => OK
Paragraphs: 5.0 4.97078651685 101% => OK
Language errors: 4.0 7.80617977528 51% => OK
Sentences with positive sentiment : 10.0 10.2758426966 97% => OK
Sentences with negative sentiment : 5.0 5.13820224719 97% => OK
Sentences with neutral sentiment: 3.0 4.83258426966 62% => OK
What are sentences with positive/Negative/neutral sentiment?
Coherence and Cohesion:
Essay topic to essay body coherence: 0.237650672991 0.243740707755 98% => OK
Sentence topic coherence: 0.0781616869877 0.0831039109588 94% => OK
Sentence topic coherence SD: 0.0720639242224 0.0758088955206 95% => OK
Paragraph topic coherence: 0.114841658211 0.150359130593 76% => OK
Paragraph topic coherence SD: 0.0838592818571 0.0667264976115 126% => OK
Essay readability:
automated_readability_index: 14.6 14.1392134831 103% => OK
flesch_reading_ease: 53.55 48.8420337079 110% => OK
smog_index: 8.8 7.92365168539 111% => OK
flesch_kincaid_grade: 12.3 12.1743820225 101% => OK
coleman_liau_index: 11.26 12.1639044944 93% => OK
dale_chall_readability_score: 8.3 8.38706741573 99% => OK
difficult_words: 101.0 100.480337079 101% => OK
linsear_write_formula: 17.0 11.8971910112 143% => OK
gunning_fog: 12.4 11.2143820225 111% => OK
text_standard: 12.0 11.7820224719 102% => OK
What are above readability scores?
---------------------
Rates: 66.67 out of 100
Scores by essay e-grader: 4.0 Out of 6
---------------------
Note: the e-grader does NOT examine the meaning of words and ideas. VIP users will receive further evaluations by advanced module of e-grader and human graders.