150. The following appeared in a letter from a firm providing investment advice to a client.
"Homes in the northeastern United States, where winters are typically cold, have traditionally used oil as their major fuel for heating. Last year that region experienced 90 days with below-average temperatures, and climate forecasters at Waymarsh University predict that this weather pattern will continue for several more years. Furthermore, many new homes have been built in this region during the past year. Because these developments will certainly result in an increased demand for heating oil, we recommend investment in Consolidated Industries, one of whose major business operations is the retail sale of home heating oil."
Write a response in which you discuss what questions would need to be answered in order to decide whether the recommendation and the argument on which it is based are reasonable. Be sure to explain how the answers to these questions would help to evaluate the recommendation.
In this letter, the author recommends that a client needs to invest in Consolidated Industries, one of whose major business operations is the retail sale of home heating oil. Although this recommendation may seem convincing at first, the lack of answers leads me to conclude that the argument is invalid on many grounds.
First, the author needs to answer the question of whether the region experienced twenty days with below-average temperatures means that it was freezing all over the winter. The author assumes that the pattern of northeastern winter weather, experiencing twenty days with below-average temperatures, will continue this year and in the future because the local weather forecasters predict that this tendency will continue. However, it is possible that the pattern of last year is temporary and may not continue in the long run. And also, the weather forecast does not equate to the actual weather. Although the weather forecasters intend that the winter’s weather pattern will continue for the future, it may not do so. The author also assumes that the northeast may have experienced cold weather during the last winter except for those twenty days. However, it is possible that except the twenty days, most days of the last winter in the northeast experienced quite high temperatures. Even it might be above-average temperatures.
Second, the author does not answer the question of whether the demands of heating oil will increase due to the many new homes which were built in the northeast. The author assumes that the new homes will use oil as their major fuel for heating as existing houses, but in reality, they may not. They may have installed different types of heating facilities, especially in more eco-friendly ways. It is because there could be long feared to be contaminated by the using of oil for heating. And the author supposes that the number of total houses in the northeast might be increased by building the new homes. Although many houses have been built during the past year, the total number of houses in the region may decrease if much more existing houses have been demolished. Therefore, even there are much of newly built houses, it does not mean that the demands of heating oil will increase in this region.
Third, even if the demand for heating oil is forecast to increase, one might question whether it is appropriate to invest in Consolidated Industries. The author’s recommendation is based on that Consolidated Industries is a large portion of the heating oil supply of the United States. However, the author does not mention how much Consolidated Industries occupies the supply of heating oil in the nationwide. If there are more primary providers for the heating oil than Consolidated Industries, a client might not be earned profits from investing Consolidated Industries.
Lastly, the author assumes that the tendency of the northeast can be generalized to nationwide. The northeast cannot be equivalent to the United States as a whole. The author says that because in the northeast, the last winter was so cold and the winter’s weather pattern will continue and there were many houses built recently, therefore the demands of heating oil will increase. However, firstly, other regions, such as the south or the west, may be experiencing too warm winters to use heating facilities. Secondly, they might use other resources for heating such as coal, woods, etc. Lastly, the regions may be experiencing a sharp decline in housing, therefore demand for heating oil may also decrease.
In conclusion, the author’s recommendation is unsound on many grounds. In order to strengthen the recommendation, the author should provide specific evidence of increasing demand for heating oil in nationwide.
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Comments
Essay evaluation report
Attribute Value Ideal
Final score: 3.5 out of 6
Category: Satisfactory Excellent
No. of Grammatical Errors: 0 2
No. of Spelling Errors: 0 2
No. of Sentences: 28 15
No. of Words: 610 350
No. of Characters: 3071 1500
No. of Different Words: 217 200
Fourth Root of Number of Words: 4.97 4.7
Average Word Length: 5.034 4.6
Word Length SD: 2.738 2.4
No. of Words greater than 5 chars: 234 100
No. of Words greater than 6 chars: 169 80
No. of Words greater than 7 chars: 107 40
No. of Words greater than 8 chars: 67 20
Use of Passive Voice (%): 0 0
Avg. Sentence Length: 21.786 21.0
Sentence Length SD: 7.073 7.5
Use of Discourse Markers (%): 0.714 0.12
Sentence-Text Coherence: 0.33 0.35
Sentence-Para Coherence: 0.545 0.50
Sentence-Sentence Coherence: 0.134 0.07
Number of Paragraphs: 6 5
Grammar and spelling errors:
Line 1, column 1, Rule ID: WHITESPACE_RULE
Message: Possible typo: you repeated a whitespace
Suggestion:
In this letter, the author recommends th...
^^
Line 2, column 1, Rule ID: WHITESPACE_RULE
Message: Possible typo: you repeated a whitespace
Suggestion:
... argument is invalid on many grounds. First, the author needs to answer the qu...
^^
Line 2, column 37, Rule ID: WHETHER[3]
Message: Wordiness: Shorten this phrase to the shortest possible suggestion.
Suggestion: whether; the question whether
.... First, the author needs to answer the question of whether the region experienced twenty days with...
^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^
Line 3, column 1, Rule ID: WHITESPACE_RULE
Message: Possible typo: you repeated a whitespace
Suggestion:
... might be above-average temperatures. Second, the author does not answer the q...
^^
Line 3, column 38, Rule ID: WHETHER[3]
Message: Wordiness: Shorten this phrase to the shortest possible suggestion.
Suggestion: whether; the question whether
... Second, the author does not answer the question of whether the demands of heating oil will increas...
^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^
Line 4, column 1, Rule ID: WHITESPACE_RULE
Message: Possible typo: you repeated a whitespace
Suggestion:
...ing oil will increase in this region. Third, even if the demand for heating oi...
^^
Line 5, column 1, Rule ID: WHITESPACE_RULE
Message: Possible typo: you repeated a whitespace
Suggestion:
...om investing Consolidated Industries. Lastly, the author assumes that the tend...
^^
Line 5, column 716, Rule ID: WHITESPACE_RULE
Message: Possible typo: you repeated a whitespace
Suggestion:
...mand for heating oil may also decrease. In conclusion, the author's recomme...
^^^^^
Transition Words or Phrases used:
also, but, first, firstly, however, if, lastly, may, second, secondly, so, then, therefore, third, except for, in conclusion, such as
Attributes: Values AverageValues Percentages(Values/AverageValues)% => Comments
Performance on Part of Speech:
To be verbs : 28.0 19.6327345309 143% => OK
Auxiliary verbs: 27.0 12.9520958084 208% => Less auxiliary verb wanted.
Conjunction : 8.0 11.1786427146 72% => OK
Relative clauses : 17.0 13.6137724551 125% => OK
Pronoun: 34.0 28.8173652695 118% => OK
Preposition: 69.0 55.5748502994 124% => OK
Nominalization: 11.0 16.3942115768 67% => OK
Performance on vocabulary words:
No of characters: 3165.0 2260.96107784 140% => OK
No of words: 610.0 441.139720559 138% => Less content wanted.
Chars per words: 5.18852459016 5.12650576532 101% => OK
Fourth root words length: 4.96972615649 4.56307096286 109% => OK
Word Length SD: 2.89400913973 2.78398813304 104% => OK
Unique words: 238.0 204.123752495 117% => OK
Unique words percentage: 0.390163934426 0.468620217663 83% => More unique words wanted or less content wanted.
syllable_count: 965.7 705.55239521 137% => OK
avg_syllables_per_word: 1.6 1.59920159681 100% => OK
A sentence (or a clause, phrase) starts by:
Pronoun: 8.0 4.96107784431 161% => OK
Article: 19.0 8.76447105788 217% => Less articles wanted as sentence beginning.
Subordination: 5.0 2.70958083832 185% => OK
Conjunction: 3.0 1.67365269461 179% => OK
Preposition: 3.0 4.22255489022 71% => OK
Performance on sentences:
How many sentences: 29.0 19.7664670659 147% => OK
Sentence length: 21.0 22.8473053892 92% => OK
Sentence length SD: 43.4805299 57.8364921388 75% => OK
Chars per sentence: 109.137931034 119.503703932 91% => OK
Words per sentence: 21.0344827586 23.324526521 90% => OK
Discourse Markers: 4.58620689655 5.70786347227 80% => OK
Paragraphs: 6.0 5.15768463074 116% => OK
Language errors: 8.0 5.25449101796 152% => OK
Sentences with positive sentiment : 11.0 8.20758483034 134% => OK
Sentences with negative sentiment : 5.0 6.88822355289 73% => OK
Sentences with neutral sentiment: 13.0 4.67664670659 278% => Less facts, knowledge or examples wanted.
What are sentences with positive/Negative/neutral sentiment?
Coherence and Cohesion:
Essay topic to essay body coherence: 0.171353551146 0.218282227539 79% => OK
Sentence topic coherence: 0.0524575805378 0.0743258471296 71% => OK
Sentence topic coherence SD: 0.0427722563607 0.0701772020484 61% => OK
Paragraph topic coherence: 0.0927178413103 0.128457276422 72% => OK
Paragraph topic coherence SD: 0.0202534915717 0.0628817314937 32% => Paragraphs are similar to each other. Some content may get duplicated or it is not exactly right on the topic.
Essay readability:
automated_readability_index: 13.5 14.3799401198 94% => Automated_readability_index is low.
flesch_reading_ease: 50.16 48.3550499002 104% => OK
smog_index: 8.8 7.1628742515 123% => OK
flesch_kincaid_grade: 11.5 12.197005988 94% => OK
coleman_liau_index: 12.82 12.5979740519 102% => OK
dale_chall_readability_score: 7.76 8.32208582834 93% => OK
difficult_words: 119.0 98.500998004 121% => OK
linsear_write_formula: 15.0 12.3882235529 121% => OK
gunning_fog: 10.4 11.1389221557 93% => OK
text_standard: 15.0 11.9071856287 126% => OK
What are above readability scores?
---------------------
Write the essay in 30 minutes.
Rates: 62.5 out of 100
Scores by essay e-grader: 3.75 Out of 6
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Note: the e-grader does NOT examine the meaning of words and ideas. VIP users will receive further evaluations by advanced module of e-grader and human graders.