The following appeared in a letter from a firm providing investment advice for a client.
"Most homes in the northeastern United States, where winters are typically cold, have traditionally used oil as their major fuel for heating. Last heating season that region experienced 90 days with below-normal temperatures, and climate forecasters predict that this weather pattern will continue for several more years. Furthermore, many new homes are being built in the region in response to recent population growth. Because of these trends, we predict an increased demand for heating oil and recommend investment in Consolidated Industries, one of whose major business operations is the retail sale of home heating oil.
Write a response in which you discuss what questions would need to be addressed in order to decide whether the conclusion and the argument on which it is based are reasonable. Be sure to explain how the answers to the questions would help to evaluate the conclusion.
The investment advice given by the firm suggests the client to invest in Consolidated Industry due to their prediction of heating oil demands. However, several questions need to answer in order to make wise investments.
The firm mentioned that the forecasters predicted that the weather pattern would continue to be cold for more years. However, what are the backgrounds and education levels of the forecasters? Are they college graduates that predict weather patterns based on lousy excel models and making wild guesses? The predictions may base on wrong data or simplified factors due to their lack of equipment and experience. The firm must provide forecasters' backgrounds and their level of experience.
The letter also mentioned that due to the new housing built, an increase in heating oil demand would occur. However, is heating oil the only method of heating? New homes being built may equipped with advanced heating facilities such as electronic heater or indoor heating pipes other than heating oil. Therefore the increased demand for heating oil is unknown.
The firm did not mention the long-run population trend. Does the population growth remains high in the next ten or twenty years? Or is the population growth a short term response due to the low prices of housing on government subsidies? The population might even decrease if the residents found out that the cold weather will continue for a long time and thus cannot forebear the low temperatures. The firm assumed that the population growth will still increase without providing any evidence of future trends.
The firm recommended to invest in Consolidated Industries but provide no information about the company. What is the market share of Consolidates Industries? If there are more prominent companies that sell heating oil which is a monopoly in the market. Then investing in a small company like Consolidates Industry will not be a bright idea. Also, does a retailer makes a profit in selling heating oil or the manufacturer that makes it? Apple makes much money selling iPhones, but its retailer does not. Therefore, the firm should answer whether retailers in heating oil makes money and the market share of the company.
Finally, is this the right time to invest, or is it too late? Climate forecasts are not a secret and people can realize that new houses were built. Which makes people and other companies start to invest in heating oil. The information may be old in an investment aspect; thus investing now may not make a significant profit. Therefore, more information about the market dynamics also need to be provided.
The investment firm must first answer the questions above to give recommendations for others to invest.
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Comments
Essay evaluation report
Attribute Value Ideal
Final score: 3.5 out of 6
Category: Satisfactory Excellent
No. of Grammatical Errors: 0 2
No. of Spelling Errors: 0 2
No. of Sentences: 29 15
No. of Words: 443 350
No. of Characters: 2223 1500
No. of Different Words: 217 200
Fourth Root of Number of Words: 4.588 4.7
Average Word Length: 5.018 4.6
Word Length SD: 2.667 2.4
No. of Words greater than 5 chars: 163 100
No. of Words greater than 6 chars: 122 80
No. of Words greater than 7 chars: 78 40
No. of Words greater than 8 chars: 58 20
Use of Passive Voice (%): 0 0
Avg. Sentence Length: 15.276 21.0
Sentence Length SD: 4.525 7.5
Use of Discourse Markers (%): 0.655 0.12
Sentence-Text Coherence: 0.27 0.35
Sentence-Para Coherence: 0.538 0.50
Sentence-Sentence Coherence: 0.079 0.07
Number of Paragraphs: 7 5
Grammar and spelling errors:
Line 9, column 1, Rule ID: ENGLISH_WORD_REPEAT_BEGINNING_RULE
Message: Three successive sentences begin with the same word. Reword the sentence or use a thesaurus to find a synonym.
...nds and their level of experience. The letter also mentioned that due to the n...
^^^
Line 9, column 303, Rule ID: SENT_START_CONJUNCTIVE_LINKING_ADVERB_COMMA[1]
Message: Did you forget a comma after a conjunctive/linking adverb?
Suggestion: Therefore,
...r heating pipes other than heating oil. Therefore the increased demand for heating oil is...
^^^^^^^^^
Line 13, column 84, Rule ID: DOES_NP_VBZ[1]
Message: Did you mean 'remain'?
Suggestion: remain
...ation trend. Does the population growth remains high in the next ten or twenty years? O...
^^^^^^^
Line 17, column 1, Rule ID: ENGLISH_WORD_REPEAT_BEGINNING_RULE
Message: Three successive sentences begin with the same word. Reword the sentence or use a thesaurus to find a synonym.
...ing any evidence of future trends. The firm recommended to invest in Consolida...
^^^
Line 17, column 10, Rule ID: ADMIT_ENJOY_VB[1]
Message: This verb is used with the gerund form: 'recommended investing'.
Suggestion: recommended investing
...vidence of future trends. The firm recommended to invest in Consolidated Industries but provide ...
^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^
Line 17, column 158, Rule ID: SENTENCE_FRAGMENT[1]
Message: “If” at the beginning of a sentence requires a 2nd clause. Maybe a comma, question or exclamation mark is missing, or the sentence is incomplete and should be joined with the following sentence.
...arket share of Consolidates Industries? If there are more prominent companies that...
^^
Line 17, column 363, Rule ID: DOES_NP_VBZ[1]
Message: Did you mean 'make'?
Suggestion: make
...be a bright idea. Also, does a retailer makes a profit in selling heating oil or the ...
^^^^^
Transition Words or Phrases used:
also, but, finally, first, however, if, may, so, still, then, therefore, thus, such as
Attributes: Values AverageValues Percentages(Values/AverageValues)% => Comments
Performance on Part of Speech:
To be verbs : 17.0 19.6327345309 87% => OK
Auxiliary verbs: 17.0 12.9520958084 131% => OK
Conjunction : 16.0 11.1786427146 143% => OK
Relative clauses : 11.0 13.6137724551 81% => OK
Pronoun: 17.0 28.8173652695 59% => OK
Preposition: 45.0 55.5748502994 81% => OK
Nominalization: 19.0 16.3942115768 116% => OK
Performance on vocabulary words:
No of characters: 2299.0 2260.96107784 102% => OK
No of words: 443.0 441.139720559 100% => OK
Chars per words: 5.18961625282 5.12650576532 101% => OK
Fourth root words length: 4.58776254615 4.56307096286 101% => OK
Word Length SD: 2.73543716286 2.78398813304 98% => OK
Unique words: 224.0 204.123752495 110% => OK
Unique words percentage: 0.505643340858 0.468620217663 108% => OK
syllable_count: 697.5 705.55239521 99% => OK
avg_syllables_per_word: 1.6 1.59920159681 100% => OK
A sentence (or a clause, phrase) starts by:
Pronoun: 0.0 4.96107784431 0% => OK
Article: 13.0 8.76447105788 148% => OK
Subordination: 1.0 2.70958083832 37% => OK
Conjunction: 3.0 1.67365269461 179% => OK
Preposition: 0.0 4.22255489022 0% => More preposition wanted as sentence beginning.
Performance on sentences:
How many sentences: 29.0 19.7664670659 147% => OK
Sentence length: 15.0 22.8473053892 66% => The Avg. Sentence Length is relatively short.
Sentence length SD: 27.4277778253 57.8364921388 47% => The essay contains lots of sentences with the similar length. More sentence varieties wanted.
Chars per sentence: 79.275862069 119.503703932 66% => OK
Words per sentence: 15.275862069 23.324526521 65% => OK
Discourse Markers: 2.96551724138 5.70786347227 52% => More transition words/phrases wanted.
Paragraphs: 7.0 5.15768463074 136% => Less paragraphs wanted.
Language errors: 7.0 5.25449101796 133% => OK
Sentences with positive sentiment : 14.0 8.20758483034 171% => OK
Sentences with negative sentiment : 4.0 6.88822355289 58% => More negative sentences wanted.
Sentences with neutral sentiment: 11.0 4.67664670659 235% => Less facts, knowledge or examples wanted.
What are sentences with positive/Negative/neutral sentiment?
Coherence and Cohesion:
Essay topic to essay body coherence: 0.20261005526 0.218282227539 93% => OK
Sentence topic coherence: 0.0572836919111 0.0743258471296 77% => OK
Sentence topic coherence SD: 0.0541834081128 0.0701772020484 77% => OK
Paragraph topic coherence: 0.108022986513 0.128457276422 84% => OK
Paragraph topic coherence SD: 0.0399346479052 0.0628817314937 64% => OK
Essay readability:
automated_readability_index: 10.7 14.3799401198 74% => Automated_readability_index is low.
flesch_reading_ease: 56.25 48.3550499002 116% => OK
smog_index: 3.1 7.1628742515 43% => Smog_index is low.
flesch_kincaid_grade: 9.1 12.197005988 75% => OK
coleman_liau_index: 12.23 12.5979740519 97% => OK
dale_chall_readability_score: 8.09 8.32208582834 97% => OK
difficult_words: 104.0 98.500998004 106% => OK
linsear_write_formula: 8.0 12.3882235529 65% => OK
gunning_fog: 8.0 11.1389221557 72% => OK
text_standard: 8.0 11.9071856287 67% => The average readability is low. Need to imporve the language.
What are above readability scores?
---------------------
Maximum six paragraphs wanted.
Rates: 50.0 out of 100
Scores by essay e-grader: 3.0 Out of 6
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Note: the e-grader does NOT examine the meaning of words and ideas. VIP users will receive further evaluations by advanced module of e-grader and human graders.