The following appeared in a letter from a firm providing investment advice for a client.
"Most homes in the northeastern United States, where winters are typically cold, have traditionally used oil as their major fuel for heating. Last heating season that region experienced 90 days with below-normal temperatures, and climate forecasters predict that this weather pattern will continue for several more years. Furthermore, many new homes are being built in the region in response to recent population growth. Because of these trends, we predict an increased demand for heating oil and recommend investment in Consolidated Industries, one of whose major business operations is the retail sale of home heating oil."
Write a response in which you examine the stated and/or unstated assumptions of the argument. Be sure to explain how the argument depends on these assumptions and what the implications are for the argument if the assumptions prove unwarranted.
The argument states that, in northeastern homes, oil has been the traditional source of heating in winters and the region had below normal temperature for around 90 days in last winter. So, the author suggests that investing in Consolidated Industries would be profitable as its major function is retail sale of heating oil. Author backs up his argument by giving evidence of climate forecast that the extreme cold weather will likely to continue for next few years and demand for the heating oil will increase. This argument seems reasonable at first glance. However, the author fails to provide solid evidence to endorse some of his assumptions. Moreover the author has some unstated assumptions, which may be proved wrong later. Thorough research must be done before investing in Consolidated industries.
Firstly, author assumes that the traditional heating source in winter is oil and all homes in northeastern United States use the oil, however, fails to give statistical data. The argument is based on the this flimsy assumption and author overlooks the possibility of other sources of heating such as electricity, wood and gas. Author should provide some numerical data about usage of oil as heating source in northeastern united states. However, if it is proved that, oil is not the source of home heating in many homes, the author’s argument falls apart. Author’s assumption is based on climate forecast which is bit vague in this case, however, weather forecasts may not turn out to be true always, moreover no substantial data is provided from previous years about increasing cold during winters and forecast for next few years may not be dependable based on the frequent changes in climate. If, the weather forecast turns out to be correct for next few years and the homes continue to use oil as source of home heating, author’s argument predicts correctly and investing in Consolidated industries will surely be profitable.
Secondly, author assumes that because of increase in population new homes are being built and those homes are oil home heating compatible. However, this assumption may be proved wrong, since author mentioned oil as traditional way of home heating, it may not be suitable for new houses or it may have some disadvantage over other sources such as gas, wood and electricity. If, other sources of home heating are proved to be more advantageous this undermines the author’s argument. Moreover, if the extreme weather conditions persist, people may want to migrate to warmer places and the demand for new homes as well as oil may go down instead of going up, which weakens the argument.
Lastly, author wrongly assumes that, winters will be extremely cold in all other parts of United States as well ,which is not defensible. Although, demand for heating oil may go up in northeastern part but the demand increase cannot be applied to all other parts of United States. So, investing in Consolidated Industries may not be a good idea. Moreover, author does not provide any evidence about increasing demand for oil from recent years, if such data is provided, author’s argument becomes strong.
To conclude, the argument falls apart because of lack of substantial data to back up the assumptions made by author. If the author had given some real evidence the argument would have been more tenable.Thus, stakeholders should do an intensive research before investing some money in Consolidated Industries.
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Comments
e-rater score report
Attribute Value Ideal
Final score: 4.0 out of 6
Category: Good Excellent
No. of Grammatical Errors: 8 2
No. of Spelling Errors: 3 2
No. of Sentences: 23 15
No. of Words: 562 350
No. of Characters: 2812 1500
No. of Different Words: 219 200
Fourth Root of Number of Words: 4.869 4.7
Average Word Length: 5.004 4.6
Word Length SD: 2.635 2.4
No. of Words greater than 5 chars: 217 100
No. of Words greater than 6 chars: 156 80
No. of Words greater than 7 chars: 104 40
No. of Words greater than 8 chars: 56 20
Use of Passive Voice (%): 0 0
Avg. Sentence Length: 24.435 21.0
Sentence Length SD: 10.982 7.5
Use of Discourse Markers (%): 0.783 0.12
Sentence-Text Coherence: 0.365 0.35
Sentence-Para Coherence: 0.528 0.50
Sentence-Sentence Coherence: 0.096 0.07
Number of Paragraphs: 5 5
Grammar and spelling errors:
Line 1, column 649, Rule ID: SENT_START_CONJUNCTIVE_LINKING_ADVERB_COMMA[1]
Message: Did you forget a comma after a conjunctive/linking adverb?
Suggestion: Moreover,
...nce to endorse some of his assumptions. Moreover the author has some unstated assumption...
^^^^^^^^
Line 3, column 201, Rule ID: DT_DT[2]
Message: Maybe you need to remove the second determiner so that only 'the' or 'this' is left.
Suggestion: the; this
...tistical data. The argument is based on the this flimsy assumption and author overlooks ...
^^^^^^^^
Line 3, column 615, Rule ID: BEEN_PART_AGREEMENT[1]
Message: Consider using a past participle here: 'bitten'.
Suggestion: bitten
...n is based on climate forecast which is bit vague in this case, however, weather fo...
^^^
Line 5, column 374, Rule ID: SENTENCE_FRAGMENT[1]
Message: “If” at the beginning of a sentence requires a 2nd clause. Maybe a comma, question or exclamation mark is missing, or the sentence is incomplete and should be joined with the following sentence.
...rces such as gas, wood and electricity. If, other sources of home heating are prov...
^^
Line 7, column 112, Rule ID: COMMA_PARENTHESIS_WHITESPACE
Message: Put a space after the comma, but not before the comma
Suggestion: ,
...all other parts of United States as well ,which is not defensible. Although, deman...
^^
Line 9, column 118, Rule ID: SENTENCE_FRAGMENT[1]
Message: “If” at the beginning of a sentence requires a 2nd clause. Maybe a comma, question or exclamation mark is missing, or the sentence is incomplete and should be joined with the following sentence.
...back up the assumptions made by author. If the author had given some real evidence...
^^
Line 9, column 203, Rule ID: SENTENCE_WHITESPACE
Message: Add a space between sentences
Suggestion: Thus
...e argument would have been more tenable.Thus, stakeholders should do an intensive re...
^^^^
Line 9, column 232, Rule ID: A_UNCOUNTABLE[3]
Message: Uncountable nouns are usually not used with an indefinite article. Use simply 'intensive research'.
Suggestion: intensive research
...re tenable.Thus, stakeholders should do an intensive research before investing some money in Consolid...
^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^
Transition Words or Phrases used:
but, first, firstly, however, if, lastly, look, may, moreover, second, secondly, so, thus, well, such as, as well as
Attributes: Values AverageValues Percentages(Values/AverageValues)% => Comments
Performance on Part of Speech:
To be verbs : 29.0 19.6327345309 148% => OK
Auxiliary verbs: 20.0 12.9520958084 154% => OK
Conjunction : 13.0 11.1786427146 116% => OK
Relative clauses : 11.0 13.6137724551 81% => OK
Pronoun: 19.0 28.8173652695 66% => OK
Preposition: 72.0 55.5748502994 130% => OK
Nominalization: 20.0 16.3942115768 122% => OK
Performance on vocabulary words:
No of characters: 2900.0 2260.96107784 128% => OK
No of words: 561.0 441.139720559 127% => OK
Chars per words: 5.16934046346 5.12650576532 101% => OK
Fourth root words length: 4.86676880123 4.56307096286 107% => OK
Word Length SD: 2.74866078963 2.78398813304 99% => OK
Unique words: 233.0 204.123752495 114% => OK
Unique words percentage: 0.415329768271 0.468620217663 89% => More unique words wanted or less content wanted.
syllable_count: 900.9 705.55239521 128% => OK
avg_syllables_per_word: 1.6 1.59920159681 100% => OK
A sentence (or a clause, phrase) starts by:
Pronoun: 3.0 4.96107784431 60% => OK
Article: 7.0 8.76447105788 80% => OK
Subordination: 5.0 2.70958083832 185% => OK
Conjunction: 0.0 1.67365269461 0% => OK
Preposition: 3.0 4.22255489022 71% => OK
Performance on sentences:
How many sentences: 23.0 19.7664670659 116% => OK
Sentence length: 24.0 22.8473053892 105% => OK
Sentence length SD: 64.4922878993 57.8364921388 112% => OK
Chars per sentence: 126.086956522 119.503703932 106% => OK
Words per sentence: 24.3913043478 23.324526521 105% => OK
Discourse Markers: 5.04347826087 5.70786347227 88% => OK
Paragraphs: 5.0 5.15768463074 97% => OK
Language errors: 8.0 5.25449101796 152% => OK
Sentences with positive sentiment : 10.0 8.20758483034 122% => OK
Sentences with negative sentiment : 11.0 6.88822355289 160% => OK
Sentences with neutral sentiment: 2.0 4.67664670659 43% => OK
What are sentences with positive/Negative/neutral sentiment?
Coherence and Cohesion:
Essay topic to essay body coherence: 0.239292186994 0.218282227539 110% => OK
Sentence topic coherence: 0.0890764529417 0.0743258471296 120% => OK
Sentence topic coherence SD: 0.067131568748 0.0701772020484 96% => OK
Paragraph topic coherence: 0.153255008944 0.128457276422 119% => OK
Paragraph topic coherence SD: 0.0698445907138 0.0628817314937 111% => OK
Essay readability:
automated_readability_index: 15.1 14.3799401198 105% => OK
flesch_reading_ease: 47.12 48.3550499002 97% => OK
smog_index: 8.8 7.1628742515 123% => OK
flesch_kincaid_grade: 12.7 12.197005988 104% => OK
coleman_liau_index: 13.0 12.5979740519 103% => OK
dale_chall_readability_score: 8.04 8.32208582834 97% => OK
difficult_words: 114.0 98.500998004 116% => OK
linsear_write_formula: 11.0 12.3882235529 89% => OK
gunning_fog: 11.6 11.1389221557 104% => OK
text_standard: 13.0 11.9071856287 109% => OK
What are above readability scores?
---------------------
Rates: 66.67 out of 100
Scores by essay e-grader: 4.0 Out of 6
---------------------
Note: the e-grader does NOT examine the meaning of words and ideas. VIP users will receive further evaluations by advanced module of e-grader and human graders.