The following appeared in a letter from a firm providing investment advice to a client.
"Homes in the northeastern United States, where winters are typically cold, have traditionally used oil as their major fuel for heating. Last year that region experienced twenty days with below-average temperatures, and local weather forecasters throughout the region predict that this weather pattern will continue for several more years. Furthermore, many new homes have been built in this region during the past year. Based on these developments, we predict a large increase in the demand for heating oil. Therefore, we recommend investment in Consolidated Industries, one of whose major business operations is the retail sale of home heating oil."
Write a response in which you discuss what questions would need to be answered in order to decide whether the recommendation and the argument on which it is based are reasonable. Be sure to explain how the answers to these questions would help to evaluate the recommendation.
It seems to be logical, at first glance, to agree with the idea that investment in home heating oil will be the proficient business. However, the argument relies on less credible evidence or even assumptions to consolidate its stance. In what follows, I will elaborate them in details.
Citing the last year cold weather, the author averts that this harsh weather condition will be lasting for next years.it may be true that the previous unfavorable cold weather has ephemeral effects on the following weather, yet its long-lasting effects are equivocal. Perhaps, some factors are involved in weather pattern such as earth worming, and el-Nino effects. Based on weather adept beliefs, today weather all over the world are connected. For instance, earth warming leads to decrease in temperature worldly. Therefore, based on proficient weather predictors, and due to diminishing earth ice-mountains, the temperature will be decreased all over the world.
Even we assuming that the northeastern regions will experience colds weather in the future, there are other unanswered questions about the duration and intensity of harsh weather. The argument cites that the northeastern experienced twenty days with the below-temperature, but this does not mean that they experienced harsh or very unfavorable cold conditions. May be resident of the northeastern part experienced fewer days with very harsh weather in the previous years ago as compared with the last year. There is an innumerable number in below-average, and we do not know what temperature they had in the last years. Similarly, we do not have more information about the duration and intensity of cold temperature in the previous years ago in the northeastern as a contrast with the last year. Perhaps, they experience very below temperature with the less day in the previous which means that that condition was so unfavorable and harsh as compared with the last one.
Even if we know more information about the quantity and intensity of cold weather in the previous years ago, there are other flaws towards a correlation between the development of building and heating oil demands. It may be true that when the number of the home increase in the northeastern, they require to access to the heating source to warm them, but this does not mean that this type of the heating source is necessary heating oils. Maybe the denizen of northeastern is concern about fossil fuels deteriorations, and they want to use less other heating sources such as electricity ones. Moreover, maybe the cost of the heating oil is high, and the new residents of the northeastern will not be able to pay more money for their heating oil. Therefore, they are eager to use forest woods to heat them. Also, we do not have additional information about the architecture of the new building. To explain more, some of the modern or new homes are build based on the energy-saving idea. For instance, the location of the windows or door is matched with the sunrise.
To fully evaluate this argument, we require to have additional information, the first piece of information we need is the knowing world weather pattern and its relation with local weather. To better assessment, we also require to know more intensity and duration of cold weather in the previous years ago. Finally, to improve the argument as a whole, it is greatly recommended that the author provide more information about new building structures.
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Comments
Essay evaluation report
argument 1 -- not OK
argument 2 -- not exactly
argument 3 -- OK
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Need to argue against the conclusion always. For this topic it is:
Therefore, we recommend investment in Consolidated Industries, one of whose major business operations is the retail sale of home heating oil.
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Attribute Value Ideal
Final score: 2.5 out of 6
Category: Poor Excellent
No. of Grammatical Errors: 0 2
No. of Spelling Errors: 0 2
No. of Sentences: 25 15
No. of Words: 564 350
No. of Characters: 2812 1500
No. of Different Words: 233 200
Fourth Root of Number of Words: 4.873 4.7
Average Word Length: 4.986 4.6
Word Length SD: 2.796 2.4
No. of Words greater than 5 chars: 182 100
No. of Words greater than 6 chars: 164 80
No. of Words greater than 7 chars: 104 40
No. of Words greater than 8 chars: 69 20
Use of Passive Voice (%): 0 0
Avg. Sentence Length: 22.56 21.0
Sentence Length SD: 8.989 7.5
Use of Discourse Markers (%): 0.8 0.12
Sentence-Text Coherence: 0.306 0.35
Sentence-Para Coherence: 0.52 0.50
Sentence-Sentence Coherence: 0.176 0.07
Number of Paragraphs: 5 5
Grammar and spelling errors:
Line 4, column 305, Rule ID: ALLOW_TO[1]
Message: Did you mean 'accessing'? Or maybe you should add a pronoun? In active voice, 'require' + 'to' takes an object, usually a pronoun.
Suggestion: accessing
...rease in the northeastern, they require to access to the heating source to warm them, but...
^^^^^^^^^
Line 4, column 910, Rule ID: SOME_OF_THE[1]
Message: Simply use 'some'.
Suggestion: some
...e of the new building. To explain more, some of the modern or new homes are build based on ...
^^^^^^^^^^^
Line 5, column 228, Rule ID: ALLOW_TO[1]
Message: Did you mean 'knowing'? Or maybe you should add a pronoun? In active voice, 'require' + 'to' takes an object, usually a pronoun.
Suggestion: knowing
... To better assessment, we also require to know more intensity and duration of cold wea...
^^^^^^^
Transition Words or Phrases used:
also, but, finally, first, however, if, may, moreover, similarly, so, therefore, for instance, such as
Attributes: Values AverageValues Percentages(Values/AverageValues)% => Comments
Performance on Part of Speech:
To be verbs : 23.0 19.6327345309 117% => OK
Auxiliary verbs: 10.0 12.9520958084 77% => OK
Conjunction : 19.0 11.1786427146 170% => OK
Relative clauses : 13.0 13.6137724551 95% => OK
Pronoun: 42.0 28.8173652695 146% => Less pronouns wanted
Preposition: 75.0 55.5748502994 135% => OK
Nominalization: 26.0 16.3942115768 159% => OK
Performance on vocabulary words:
No of characters: 2886.0 2260.96107784 128% => OK
No of words: 564.0 441.139720559 128% => OK
Chars per words: 5.1170212766 5.12650576532 100% => OK
Fourth root words length: 4.87326216964 4.56307096286 107% => OK
Word Length SD: 2.89214127645 2.78398813304 104% => OK
Unique words: 240.0 204.123752495 118% => OK
Unique words percentage: 0.425531914894 0.468620217663 91% => More unique words wanted or less content wanted.
syllable_count: 891.0 705.55239521 126% => OK
avg_syllables_per_word: 1.6 1.59920159681 100% => OK
A sentence (or a clause, phrase) starts by:
Pronoun: 12.0 4.96107784431 242% => Less pronouns wanted as sentence beginning.
Article: 6.0 8.76447105788 68% => OK
Subordination: 1.0 2.70958083832 37% => OK
Conjunction: 8.0 1.67365269461 478% => Less conjunction wanted as sentence beginning.
Preposition: 7.0 4.22255489022 166% => OK
Performance on sentences:
How many sentences: 25.0 19.7664670659 126% => OK
Sentence length: 22.0 22.8473053892 96% => OK
Sentence length SD: 54.1965902987 57.8364921388 94% => OK
Chars per sentence: 115.44 119.503703932 97% => OK
Words per sentence: 22.56 23.324526521 97% => OK
Discourse Markers: 4.08 5.70786347227 71% => OK
Paragraphs: 5.0 5.15768463074 97% => OK
Language errors: 3.0 5.25449101796 57% => OK
Sentences with positive sentiment : 8.0 8.20758483034 97% => OK
Sentences with negative sentiment : 8.0 6.88822355289 116% => OK
Sentences with neutral sentiment: 9.0 4.67664670659 192% => OK
What are sentences with positive/Negative/neutral sentiment?
Coherence and Cohesion:
Essay topic to essay body coherence: 0.128605375451 0.218282227539 59% => OK
Sentence topic coherence: 0.0397636986985 0.0743258471296 53% => OK
Sentence topic coherence SD: 0.0367255842148 0.0701772020484 52% => OK
Paragraph topic coherence: 0.0688282691289 0.128457276422 54% => OK
Paragraph topic coherence SD: 0.0292275712002 0.0628817314937 46% => Paragraphs are similar to each other. Some content may get duplicated or it is not exactly right on the topic.
Essay readability:
automated_readability_index: 14.0 14.3799401198 97% => OK
flesch_reading_ease: 49.15 48.3550499002 102% => OK
smog_index: 8.8 7.1628742515 123% => OK
flesch_kincaid_grade: 11.9 12.197005988 98% => OK
coleman_liau_index: 12.71 12.5979740519 101% => OK
dale_chall_readability_score: 7.98 8.32208582834 96% => OK
difficult_words: 116.0 98.500998004 118% => OK
linsear_write_formula: 11.0 12.3882235529 89% => OK
gunning_fog: 10.8 11.1389221557 97% => OK
text_standard: 11.0 11.9071856287 92% => OK
What are above readability scores?
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Rates: 58.33 out of 100
Scores by essay e-grader: 3.5 Out of 6
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Note: the e-grader does NOT examine the meaning of words and ideas. VIP users will receive further evaluations by advanced module of e-grader and human graders.