The following appeared in a letter from a firm providing investment advice to a client.
"Homes in the northeastern United States, where winters are typically cold, have traditionally used oil as their major fuel for heating. Last year that region experienced 90 days with below-average temperatures, and climate forecasters at Waymarsh University predict that this weather pattern will continue for several more years. Furthermore, many new homes have been built in this region during the past year. Because these developments will certainly result in an increased demand for heating oil, we recommend investment in Consolidated Industries, one of whose major business operations is the retail sale of home heating oil."
Write a response in which you discuss what questions would need to be answered in order to decide whether the recommendation and the argument on which it is based are reasonable. Be sure to explain how the answers to these questions would help to evaluate the recommendation.
In this letter, the author recommends investment with consolidated industries, one of whose major business is residential heating oil, because of the foreseen increasing heating oil requirement. To support his/her claim, the author cites that the weather predication by sight of continual inclement climate in winter as well as a mass of new house construction in this region. Quite persuasive though the argument seems at first glance, there actually exists several lines of reasoning that need further analysis. The author’s recommendation could end up pretty reliable or conversely untenable in the end, perching on the answers to the questions.
To start off, the author’s recommendation mainly relies on the accurate level of weather forecast, a question that is not answered yet. It’s possible that such predication falls to totally wrong, because the Earth have really complex system and can change unpredictably. Without additional information to evaluate the potential climate pattern and winter climate, it could be likely that the region aforementioned actually experience a warm winter. If this turns out true, the weather prediction could prove unable and the author’s recommendation seems lose its ground accordingly. By contrast, any valid proof that such weather prediction is well grounded could strengthen the author’s recommendation.
Granted that the regional climate will indeed be extremely cold and given the a slew of new houses are on the way in this region, whether the oil demand could raise up in response to harsh climate and expected increasing population should need a second look. Behind the author’s assumption lie two implications. The first one is that local residents could like to stay in this very region, rather than moving. However, the probability that people are tempted to migrate to a warmer region, such as southern part of America, could not be precluded in advance. Yet, if the author presents more robust evidence to demonstrate that people are inclined to keep a sedentary lifestyle, regardless of weather factors, the author’s viewpoint will gain more weights.
Furthermore, the second implication is that oil as traditional fuel source will keep its major position in the market. Although people traditional resort to the fossil oil as their heating energy source, the prospects that new energy might emerge in the future could be considered and addressed. For instance, experimental heating approaches driven by nuclear or solar energies could enter the market and compete with oil. Rather than stimulating, such phenomenon could further vitiate the traditional oil demand, and therefore, render the author’s recommendation much less advisable. On the other hand, the increasing oil demand could be expected from the robustly dominant position in the residential heating market, thus creating more favorable market position for consolidate industries.
Last but not least, even if we can acknowledge for a moment that the increasing oil demand rise up in response to harsh climate and increasing population, it’s unclear about whether consolidate industries could seize on such opportunity. this answer to this question actually depends on many other factors, such as management efficiency, recruitment potential, which are open to different probabilities. If Consolidate Industries is poorly managed and fraught with various corruptions, it’s unlikely to prefigure that it could be hugely profitable and worth investment.
To summarize, given that the continual inclement winter climate and increasing population might have potential tos drive up the oil demand, this is still a conclusion that can be derived from the information provided in this passage. Even if the oil demand uproar as expected, the financial performance of consolidate industries still stem from multiple factors mentioned above. If and only if more unequivocal and substantiated information could be presented out can we efficiently evaluate the author’s recommendation and draw out a rationally sound conclusion.
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Comments
Essay evaluation report
Attribute Value Ideal
Final score: 3.5 out of 6
Category: Satisfactory Excellent
No. of Grammatical Errors: 0 2
No. of Spelling Errors: 0 2
No. of Sentences: 24 15
No. of Words: 617 350
No. of Characters: 3356 1500
No. of Different Words: 304 200
Fourth Root of Number of Words: 4.984 4.7
Average Word Length: 5.439 4.6
Word Length SD: 2.94 2.4
No. of Words greater than 5 chars: 267 100
No. of Words greater than 6 chars: 203 80
No. of Words greater than 7 chars: 153 40
No. of Words greater than 8 chars: 104 20
Use of Passive Voice (%): 0 0
Avg. Sentence Length: 25.708 21.0
Sentence Length SD: 10.462 7.5
Use of Discourse Markers (%): 0.833 0.12
Sentence-Text Coherence: 0.307 0.35
Sentence-Para Coherence: 0.539 0.50
Sentence-Sentence Coherence: 0.095 0.07
Number of Paragraphs: 6 5
Grammar and spelling errors:
Line 3, column 142, Rule ID: UPPERCASE_SENTENCE_START
Message: This sentence does not start with an uppercase letter
Suggestion: It&apos
...t, a question that is not answered yet. it's possible that such predication falls ...
^^^^^^^
Line 3, column 460, Rule ID: UPPERCASE_SENTENCE_START
Message: This sentence does not start with an uppercase letter
Suggestion: If
...oned actually experience a warm winter. if this turns out true, the weather predic...
^^
Line 5, column 71, Rule ID: DT_DT[1]
Message: Maybe you need to remove one determiner so that only 'the' or 'a' is left.
Suggestion: the; a
...will indeed be extremely code and given the a slew of new houses are on the way in th...
^^^^^
Line 5, column 127, Rule ID: WHETHER[7]
Message: Perhaps you can shorten this phrase to just 'whether'. It is correct though if you mean 'regardless of whether'.
Suggestion: whether
...w houses are on the way in this region, whether or not the oil demand could raise up in respon...
^^^^^^^^^^^^^^
Line 5, column 568, Rule ID: UPPERCASE_SENTENCE_START
Message: This sentence does not start with an uppercase letter
Suggestion: Yet
...ica, could not be precluded in advance. yet, if the author presents more robust evi...
^^^
Line 7, column 424, Rule ID: UPPERCASE_SENTENCE_START
Message: This sentence does not start with an uppercase letter
Suggestion: Rather
... enter the market and compete with oil. rather than stimulating, such phenomenon could...
^^^^^^
Line 9, column 244, Rule ID: UPPERCASE_SENTENCE_START
Message: This sentence does not start with an uppercase letter
Suggestion: This
...stries could seize on such opportunity. this answer to this question actually depend...
^^^^
Line 9, column 410, Rule ID: UPPERCASE_SENTENCE_START
Message: This sentence does not start with an uppercase letter
Suggestion: If
...ch are open to different probabilities. if consolidate industries is poorly manage...
^^
Line 11, column 235, Rule ID: UPPERCASE_SENTENCE_START
Message: This sentence does not start with an uppercase letter
Suggestion: Even
...e information provided in this passage. even if the oil demand uproar as expected, t...
^^^^
Line 11, column 380, Rule ID: UPPERCASE_SENTENCE_START
Message: This sentence does not start with an uppercase letter
Suggestion: If
... from multiple factors mentioned above. if and only if more unequivocal and substa...
^^
Transition Words or Phrases used:
accordingly, actually, but, conversely, first, furthermore, however, if, look, really, second, so, still, then, therefore, thus, well, for instance, such as, as well as, on the other hand
Attributes: Values AverageValues Percentages(Values/AverageValues)% => Comments
Performance on Part of Speech:
To be verbs : 19.0 19.6327345309 97% => OK
Auxiliary verbs: 26.0 12.9520958084 201% => Less auxiliary verb wanted.
Conjunction : 20.0 11.1786427146 179% => OK
Relative clauses : 18.0 13.6137724551 132% => OK
Pronoun: 34.0 28.8173652695 118% => OK
Preposition: 69.0 55.5748502994 124% => OK
Nominalization: 37.0 16.3942115768 226% => Less nominalizations (nouns with a suffix like: tion ment ence ance) wanted.
Performance on vocabulary words:
No of characters: 3491.0 2260.96107784 154% => OK
No of words: 617.0 441.139720559 140% => Less content wanted.
Chars per words: 5.65802269044 5.12650576532 110% => OK
Fourth root words length: 4.98392262146 4.56307096286 109% => OK
Word Length SD: 3.13531120276 2.78398813304 113% => OK
Unique words: 311.0 204.123752495 152% => OK
Unique words percentage: 0.504051863857 0.468620217663 108% => OK
syllable_count: 1075.5 705.55239521 152% => OK
avg_syllables_per_word: 1.7 1.59920159681 106% => OK
A sentence (or a clause, phrase) starts by:
Pronoun: 3.0 4.96107784431 60% => OK
Article: 13.0 8.76447105788 148% => OK
Subordination: 9.0 2.70958083832 332% => Less adverbial clause wanted.
Conjunction: 1.0 1.67365269461 60% => OK
Preposition: 9.0 4.22255489022 213% => Less preposition wanted as sentence beginnings.
Performance on sentences:
How many sentences: 25.0 19.7664670659 126% => OK
Sentence length: 24.0 22.8473053892 105% => OK
Sentence length SD: 44.9902389414 57.8364921388 78% => OK
Chars per sentence: 139.64 119.503703932 117% => OK
Words per sentence: 24.68 23.324526521 106% => OK
Discourse Markers: 7.48 5.70786347227 131% => OK
Paragraphs: 6.0 5.15768463074 116% => OK
Language errors: 10.0 5.25449101796 190% => OK
Sentences with positive sentiment : 16.0 8.20758483034 195% => OK
Sentences with negative sentiment : 6.0 6.88822355289 87% => OK
Sentences with neutral sentiment: 3.0 4.67664670659 64% => OK
What are sentences with positive/Negative/neutral sentiment?
Coherence and Cohesion:
Essay topic to essay body coherence: 0.107968812535 0.218282227539 49% => OK
Sentence topic coherence: 0.0338335379318 0.0743258471296 46% => OK
Sentence topic coherence SD: 0.0342613492469 0.0701772020484 49% => Sentences are similar to each other.
Paragraph topic coherence: 0.0618105860564 0.128457276422 48% => OK
Paragraph topic coherence SD: 0.0286132946094 0.0628817314937 46% => Paragraphs are similar to each other. Some content may get duplicated or it is not exactly right on the topic.
Essay readability:
automated_readability_index: 17.6 14.3799401198 122% => OK
flesch_reading_ease: 38.66 48.3550499002 80% => OK
smog_index: 11.2 7.1628742515 156% => OK
flesch_kincaid_grade: 13.8 12.197005988 113% => OK
coleman_liau_index: 15.84 12.5979740519 126% => OK
dale_chall_readability_score: 9.2 8.32208582834 111% => OK
difficult_words: 171.0 98.500998004 174% => OK
linsear_write_formula: 15.0 12.3882235529 121% => OK
gunning_fog: 11.6 11.1389221557 104% => OK
text_standard: 12.0 11.9071856287 101% => OK
What are above readability scores?
---------------------
Write the essay in 30 minutes.
Rates: 70.83 out of 100
Scores by essay e-grader: 4.25 Out of 6
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Note: the e-grader does NOT examine the meaning of words and ideas. VIP users will receive further evaluations by advanced module of e-grader and human graders.