Arctic deer live on islands in Canada's arctic regions. They search for food by moving over ice from island to island during the course of the year. Their habitat is limited to areas warm enough to sustain the plants on which they feed and cold enough, at least some of the year, for the ice to cover the sea separating the islands, allowing the deer to travel over it. Unfortunately, according to reports from local hunters, the deer populations are declining. Since these reports coincide with recent global warming trends that have caused the sea ice to melt, we can conclude that the purported decline in deer populations is the result of the deer's being unable to follow their age-old migration patterns across the frozen sea.
Write a response in which you discuss what specific evidence is needed to evaluate the argument and explain how the evidence would weaken or strengthen the argument.
The argument introduces the migration pattern in the life of Arctic deer’s and underscores that there has been a decline in their numbers. To bolster its conclusion, the argument provides reasoning based on the reports from local hunters, the global trends. In addition to these reasons, the argument states that due to the increase in melting of ice in the Arctic region, the deer's population is decreasing. The argument is rife with many loopholes and supports its conclusion with incomplete reasons. The argument also is questionable due to the lack of evidences for the different studies cited, thereby it does not make a cogent case.
The argument cites that reports from local reporters suggest that, there has been a decline in the population of the deer. The argument does not provide the statistical data and the validity of these reports. The argument fails to underscore what percentage of hunters took part in the survey and how many reported that there has been a decline. It may be possible that the hunters included in the study, where amateurs and were unaware about the hotspots of Arctic deer feeding grounds. Furthermore, it may have been possible that the hunters, would have given a negative compendium about the deer population to avoid flux of other hunters. Also, the study cited, would have asked question regarding the population of deer in a particular week of the season, when the deer’s might be feeding on a different island. It may also be possible that decline in deer population would have been due to over-hunting and not providing enough time for population regeneration. The argument's position is seriously weakened due to lack of evidences regarding the study of the local hunters and fails to instill any trust in the authenticity of these reports.
The argument further suggests that the decline in population is happening concomitantly with the global trend of Global warming. Citing the reason of increased global warming and reports from local hunters, the argument concludes that the increase in global temperature’s has resulted in the rapid increase of the ice melting, thereby hindering the migration patterns of the deer, thereby reducing their population. While it is true that global warming causes rise in temperature, it differs from place to place. Certain parts of the world, such as Australia and Antarctica, have experienced rapid rise in the average temperature, while regions such as Siberia, have become colder. On addition to that, many regions in the world such as Alaska, have faced only minute, insignificant changes in temperature.
The argument fails to provide evidence regarding the total increase in temperature and the total impact of the increase in temperature on the Ice. It may be possible, that although there has been an increase in the rate of melting of ice, the ice would be still stable enough to allow deers to pass. Furthermore, it may be possible that islands in the arctic Region of Canada, have not at all experienced any major temperature changes due to the proximity to the North pole. The argument fails to provide evidences regarding the impact of global warming to support its conclusion, thereby makes the argument seriously week.
Additionally, the argument fails to rule out other causes of decline in the population of the deer such as parasitic disease, change in the migration pattern, natural decline in deer population due to killing by Carnivores or maybe destruction of the habitats of the deer. There may be many other possible reasons for the decline in the population of the Arctic deers, the argument fails to address them. The argument does also not provide any evidences to suggest that, would any hampering in the migration cycle's of the deer, cause decrease in the population of the deer. Also, the argument is seriously enervated, due to the lack of statistics regarding the population of the deer. It might be possible that the population of deer has actually increased instead of any suggested decrease.
In conclusion, the argument does not provide enough evidences to corroborate its conclusion. Furthermore, due to the lack of evidences regarding the reports of the local hunters, the effect of Global Warming and the change in the deer populations, the argument stands annulled. Therefore, the argument due to its evident lapses, makes an inconsequential conclusion.
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argument 1 -- not OK. Need to accept the deer's populations are declining, but what is the relation between the decline to global warming?
argument 2 and argument 3 are talking about the same thing.
argument 4 -- OK
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